Taarifa ya Utafiti Kwa Umma Kutoka Twaweza:Mwaka mmoja kabla ya uchaguzi, wananchi wengi hawajaamua nani awe Rais

*Mwaka mmoja kabla ya uchaguzi, wananchi wengi hawajaamua nani awe Rais
 

*Watanzania wengi hawaridhiki na utendaji wa wabunge na hawatawachagua tena

12 Novemba 2014, Dar es Salaam: 
 Mwananchi mmoja kati ya watatu (33%) Tanzania Bara hajui ni nani atayekuwa chaguo lake la Rais kwenye uchaguzi mkuu ujao. Hakuna mgombea hata mmoja anayependwa na wapiga kura kwa zaidi ya 15%. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu zilizokusanywa na Twaweza mwezi Septemba 2014, anayeongoza ni Edward Lowassa (13%) akifuatiwa na Mizengo Pinda (12%) wote wa CCM, na watatu ni Dkt. Wilbrod Slaa wa Chadema (11%). Wafuasi wa CCM walipohojiwa, robo yao (24%) walisema watampigia kura yeyote atakayeteuliwa na chama.

Ukilinganisha kukubalika kwa vyama, nusu ya Watanzania (51%) wanasema wataipigia kura CCM kwenye uchaguzi wa Rais, na robo moja ya Watanzania (23%) wataipigia kura Chadema. Walipoulizwa watafanya nini kama vyama vya upinzani vitaungana na kusimika mgombea mmoja tu, kama UKAWA ilivyoahidi kufanya, CCM bado inaongoza lakini idadi ya watakaoichagua CCM inapungua hadi chini ya nusu (47%) ya wananchi wote. Wakati huohuo, karibu wananchi watatu kati ya kumi (28%) wamesema wangempigia kura mgombea wa upinzani. Idadi kubwa ya wananchi, mmoja kati ya watano (19%) amesema hatapigia kura chama bali mgombea. Ikitokea kundi hili likaamua kumpigia kura mgombea wa upinzani, ushindani utakuwa mkali mwaka 2015.

Matokeo haya yametolewa na Twaweza kwenye muhtasari wa utafiti wenye jina la Tanzania kuelekea 2015: Maoni na matakwa ya wananchi juu ya uongozi wa kisiasa. Muhtasari huu umetokana na Sauti za Wananchi, utafiti wa kwanza Afrika wenye uwakilishi wa kitaifa unaofanyika kwa njia ya simu ya mkononi maeneo yote Tanzania Bara (Zanzibar haimo kwenye matokeo haya). Matokeo muhimu yametokana na takwimu zilizokusanywa kutoka kwa wahojiwa 1,445 mwezi Septemba 2014.

Linapokuja suala la upenzi wa vyama, ukweli uko wazi, CCM inaendelea kuwa na wafuasi wengi zaidi kuliko vyama vingine. Wahojiwa walipoulizwa wangependa kumpigia kura mgombea wa chama gani kwenye nafasi za Rais, Mbunge au Diwani, CCM inaongoza kwa mbali. Karibu mara mbili ya idadi ya wahojiwa wanasema watawachagua wagombea wa CCM kwa nafasi hizi, ikilinganishwa na mpinzani wake Chadema. Vile vile 54% ya walioshiriki kwenye utafiti wa Sauti za Wananchi wanasema kuwa wao ni wafuasi wa CCM, wakati wahojiwa 27% walijitambulisha kuwa ni wafuasi wa Chadema.

Hata hivyo, hali hii inaweza isiendelee kutokea, CCM imekuwa ikipoteza kura zake tangu mwaka 2005, Mathalani, kura za CCM zilishuka kutoka 80% (2005) hadi 61% (2010) na mwaka 2014 zimeshuka hadi 54%. Kwa mujibu wa takwimu za Twaweza). Aidha upenzi wa vyama ukiangaliwa kwa umri kuna ukweli ulio wazi kuwa Chadema inapendwa zaidi na wapiga kura vijana. Miongoni mwa wananchi wenye umri chini ya miaka 35, 44% wamedai ni wafuasi wa CCM, wakati 34% wanaunga mkono Chadema. Hii inaweza kutofautishwa na upenzi wa vyama, wananchi wenye umri kati ya miaka 35- 50 ambao ni 60% wanaiunga mkono CCM na 24% wanaiunga mkono Chadema. Kama hali hii haitabadilika, Chadema inaweza kuongeza kura zake katika siku zijazo.

Kwa ujumla, wananchi pia wamechoka kudanganywa katika masuala ya kisiasa na wawakilishi wao waliowachagua. Walipoulizwa kama wanao mpango wa kuwachagua tena wabunge wao, karibu nusu ya wananchi (47%) walisema hawatawachagua tena. Pengine ni kwa sababu wananchi hawaoni kama wabunge wao wanatimiza ahadi zao. Wananchi nane kati ya kumi (79%) wameripoti kuwa wanakumbuka ahadi zilizotolewa na wabunge wao wakati wa kampeni uchaguzi uliopita, na wananchi watatu kati ya kumi (32%) wamesema wabunge wao hawajatimiza ahadi yoyote kati ya yale waliyoyaahidi. Wananchi 16% wameripoti kuwa mbunge wao ametimiza ahadi chache. Hata hivyo, wanne kati ya kumi (38%) wameripoti kufuatilia ahadi kwa mbunge wao. Kwa ujumla, ni wananchi wenyewe waliosema kuwa wabunge wao wametekeleza ahadi chache au hawajatekeleza ahadi hata moja, kitu kilichowafanya waripoti kuwa hawatawachagua tena wabunge hao.

Kwa kuangalia takwimu za utafiti wa Sauti za Wananchi, kushuka kwa uaminifu na ushiriki kwenye uwanja wa kisiasa kumeonekana kuendelea. Mwaka 2012, hakuna mwananchi hata mmoja aliyesema angempigia kura mgombea na sio chama. Lakini mwaka 2014, wastani wa wahojiwa 17% wamesema hawatachagua chama bali mgombea kwenye uchaguzi wa udiwani, ubunge na hata urais. Lakini ishara kubwa ya kutoridhika inatokana na viwango vya uaminifu vilivyoripotiwa kuhusu ofisi husika. Kwa nafasi zote, kuanzia Rais, wabunge hadi wenyeviti wa mitaa / vijiji, wananchi wana imani ndogo na watendaji wanaoshikilia nafasi hizo leo kuliko miaka miwili iliyopita. Imani ya wananchi imepungua sana kwa wenyeviti wa mitaa / vijiji na madiwani ambao viwango vya kukubalika vimeshuka kwa 25% (mwenyekiti wa kijiji / mtaa) na kwa 23% (madiwani). Imani kwa Rais pia imepungua kutoka 45% mwaka 2012 hadi 31% mwaka 2014.

Rakesh Rajani, Mkuu wa Twaweza, alibainisha: "Uchaguzi wa vyama na viongozi unahakikisha wananchi wanasikilizwa. Takwimu zinaonesha kuwa, watu kwa ujumla wanaona kuna tatizo kwenye utekelezaji wa sera, na kushughulikia masuala muhimu kama vile umaskini, elimu na afya. Wengi hawaridhiki na utendaji kazi wa wabunge wao na hawatawachagua tena. Na miongoni mwa wagombea wa urais, hakuna mgombea anayeaminika wa kutosha, uwanja wa ushindani uko wazi. Kati ya vyama vyenye wafuasi wengi CCM bado inaongoza, lakini sehemu ya kura zake zimepungua, na inaweza kutishwa zaidi kama kura za watu ambao bado hawajaamua zitakwenda kwa umoja wa upinzani. "

"Kwa kifupi", aliongeza Rajani "inaonekana kuwa wananchi wengi wanataka utekelezaji na uongozi imara. Wagombea wa kisiasa watafanya vizuri kusikiliza watu na kushughulikia vipaumbele vya wananchi kwa njia zinazoeleweka na zenye kufikia mafanikio."

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Maelezo kwa Wahariri

1. Muhtasari huu na takwimu zilizomo zinapatikana: www.twaweza.org, au www.twaweza.org/sauti
2. Twaweza ni kusema kwamba tunaweza kufanya mambo yakawa. Hii ni jitihada inayomlenga raia na inayokusudia kuleta mabadiliko ya maana Afrika Mashariki. Twaweza inaamaini kwamba mabadiliko ya kudumu hayana budi kuanzia chini kwenda juu. Tumedhamiria kujenga mazingira na kupanua fursa ambazo zitatoa mwanya kwa mamilioni ya watu kuhabarishwa na kuwawezesha kuweza kuleta maendeleo katika jamii zao moja kwa moja na kuifanya serikali iwajibike.
3. Unaweza kufuatilia kazi za Twaweza kupitia: FB: Twaweza Tanzania Twitter: @Twaweza_NiSisi

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One year before elections, there is no leading contender for President
Many Tanzanians are unhappy with performance of MPs and will not re-elect them

12 November 2014, Dar es Salaam: One out of three citizens (33%) on Tanzania Mainland does not know who they will vote for in the upcoming presidential election. No single potential candidate is preferred by more than 15% of the voters. According to poll data collected by Twaweza in September 2014, the front-runners are Edward Lowassa (13%) and Mizengo Pinda (12%) of CCM and Wilbrod Slaa of Chadema (11%). Among CCM supporters, one quarter (24%) say that they will vote for whomever the party chooses.

Comparing parties, half of citizens (51%) report that they will vote for CCM in the presidential election compared to one quarter (23%) preferring Chadema. When asked what they would do if the opposition fields only one candidate, as the coalition UKAWA has promised to do, CCM still leads but its overall support drops to just under half (47%) of all citizens, while almost three out of ten (28%) report that they would vote for the opposition candidate. Significantly, one out of five (19%) say that they will not vote for the party but rather the individual; should most of this group opt to vote for an opposition candidate the contest could become very tight in 2015.

These findings were released by Twaweza in a research brief titled Tanzania towards 2015: citizen preferences and views on political leadership. The brief is based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile phone survey that interviews households across Tanzania Mainland (Zanzibar is not covered in these results). The main findings are based on data collected from 1,445 respondents in September 2014.

When it comes to party preferences the story is clearer; CCM continues to dominate. When respondents were asked which party’s candidates they would vote for – whether for President, MP or Councillor – CCM is by far the most popular. Twice as many respondents say they will vote for CCM candidates for these positions compared to close rival, Chadema. Similarly 54% of the Sauti za Wananchi respondents say they are affiliated with CCM as a party, as compared to 27% for Chadema.

However, this trend may not continue; CCM has been losing vote share since 2005, falling from 80% (2005) to 61% (2010) and to 54% (2014 – Twaweza data). In addition when party preferences are broken down by age there is a clear bias towards Chadema among young voters. Among citizens who are under 35, 44% claim CCM affiliation while 34% support Chadema. This can be contrasted with party affiliations among 35 – 50 year olds, of whom 60% support CCM and 24% support Chadema. If this remains constant, Chadema may increase its vote share in the future.

Citizens are also generally disillusioned with the political space and their elected representatives. When asked if they were planning to vote back their local MPs, almost half of citizens (47%) report that they will not. This could in part be because citizens do not think that MPs are keeping their promises. Eight out of ten (79%) report that they remember the promises made by MPs during the last campaign and three out of ten (32%) report that MPs did not deliver any of these promises. A further 16% report that their MP delivered on a few of the promises. However, citizens are more active; four out of ten (38%) report following up with the relevant MP on these promises. In general it is the citizens who say that their MPs kept few or none of the promises made that report that they will not vote for that MP again.

The decline in trust and engagement with the political sphere emerges consistently through the Sauti za Wananchi poll data. In 2012, no citizens reported that they vote for candidates not parties. Whereas in 2014, an average of 17% of respondents will choose candidates not parties in regards to councillor, MP and even the presidential elections. But the strongest sign of discontent emerges from reported levels of trust in a particular office. Across the board, from President to MP to street / village chairman, citizens have much less trust in these office holders today than two years ago. The biggest decline in trust is in village / street chairmen and councillors whose approval levels dropped by 25% (village / street chairman) and 23% (councillors). Trust in the President has also declined, dropping from 45% in 2012 to 31% in 2014.

Rakesh Rajani, Head of Twaweza, noted: “Elections are about citizens getting their voices heard by choosing their leaders. The data show that overall people are concerned about implementation of policies, and key issues such as poverty, education and health. Many are unhappy with the performance of their MPs and will not re-elect them. And among potential presidential aspirants, there is no leading candidate, and the field is wide open. Among political parties CCM enjoys a clear lead, but its share of the vote is declining, and could be threatened if the undecided vote goes to a united opposition.”

“In short”, added Rajani “it seems that many citizens want to see delivery and leadership. Political aspirants would do well to listen to the people and address citizen priorities in specific and achievable ways.”

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Notes to Editors

1. This brief and the data contained can be accessed at www.twaweza.org, or www.twaweza.org/sauti
2. Twaweza is a ten year citizen-centered initiative, focusing on large-scale change in East Africa. Twaweza believes that lasting change requires bottom-up action, and seeks to foster conditions and expand opportunities through which millions of people can get information and make change happen in their own communities directly and by holding government to account.
3. You can follow Twaweza’s work
4. Web: www.twaweza.org     Facebook: Twaweza Tanzania     Twitter: @Twaweza_NiSisi

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Risha Chande

                                    Communications Manager